DeNA Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a pretty great week for DeNA Co., Ltd. (TSE:2432) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to JP¥2,104 in the week since its latest half-year results. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of JP¥36b missing analyst predictions by 4.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of JP¥0.46 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for DeNA

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from DeNA's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥143.3b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 8.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. DeNA is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of JP¥91.10 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥137.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥63.75 in 2025. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a very substantial lift in earnings per share in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of JP¥1,793, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values DeNA at JP¥2,050 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,515. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting DeNA's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 18% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.6% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect DeNA to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around DeNA's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on DeNA. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for DeNA going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the DeNA Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.