JFE Holdings, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on JFE Holdings, Inc. (TSE:5411), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥1.1t revenue coming in 2.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥11.21 missed the mark badly, arriving some 48% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from JFE Holdings' ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥4.64t in 2026, which would reflect a discernible 2.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 14% to JP¥128. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥4.64t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥129 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for JFE Holdings

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥1,873. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic JFE Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥2,070 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,700. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.3% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - JFE Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple JFE Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for JFE Holdings (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.