These 4 Measures Indicate That Nippon Steel (TSE:5401) Is Using Debt Extensively

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Nippon Steel Corporation (TSE:5401) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

How Much Debt Does Nippon Steel Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2025 Nippon Steel had JP¥5.08t of debt, an increase on JP¥3.12t, over one year. On the flip side, it has JP¥524.0b in cash leading to net debt of about JP¥4.56t.

A Look At Nippon Steel's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Nippon Steel had liabilities of JP¥4.87t due within a year, and liabilities of JP¥3.45t falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of JP¥524.0b as well as receivables valued at JP¥1.65t due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by JP¥6.16t.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the JP¥3.25t company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Nippon Steel would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

View our latest analysis for Nippon Steel

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Strangely Nippon Steel has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.5, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 18.3. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Importantly, Nippon Steel's EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 37% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Nippon Steel's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Nippon Steel recorded free cash flow worth 61% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

To be frank both Nippon Steel's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Nippon Steel to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Nippon Steel (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.