Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that OAT Agrio Co., Ltd. (TSE:4979) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for OAT Agrio
What Is OAT Agrio's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, OAT Agrio had JP¥12.3b of debt, up from JP¥11.8b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have JP¥4.06b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about JP¥8.25b.
How Healthy Is OAT Agrio's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, OAT Agrio had liabilities of JP¥15.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of JP¥3.90b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of JP¥4.06b and JP¥7.26b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥7.81b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since OAT Agrio has a market capitalization of JP¥22.1b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
We'd say that OAT Agrio's moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.5), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its commanding EBIT of 23.4 times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. And we also note warmly that OAT Agrio grew its EBIT by 13% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if OAT Agrio can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, OAT Agrio produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 60% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
The good news is that OAT Agrio's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And we also thought its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a positive. All these things considered, it appears that OAT Agrio can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with OAT Agrio .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSE:4979
OAT Agrio
Researches, develops, manufactures, and sells agrochemicals and fertilizers in Japan.
Established dividend payer with adequate balance sheet.