Osaka Organic Chemical Industry Ltd.

TSE:4187 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥58.6b

Osaka Organic Chemical Industry Valuation

Is 4187 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4187 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4187 (¥2776) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥7102.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4187 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4187?

Key metric: As 4187 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4187. This is calculated by dividing 4187's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4187's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.2x
EarningsJP¥3.40b
Market CapJP¥58.65b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4187's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4187 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.5x
4109 Stella Chemifa
19.2x19.5%JP¥46.5b
4028 Ishihara Sangyo KaishaLtd
11x28.0%JP¥54.7b
4461 DKS
12.3x19.9%JP¥35.7b
4099 Shikoku Kasei Holdings
11.3x7.6%JP¥91.8b
4187 Osaka Organic Chemical Industry
17.2x14.7%JP¥58.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4187 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4187's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Chemicals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4119 Nippon Pigment Holdings
0.6xn/aUS$30.86m
No more companies available in this PE range
4187 17.2xIndustry Avg. 12.0xNo. of Companies20PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4187 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the JP Chemicals industry average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4187's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4187 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.2x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4187 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4187 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,776.00
JP¥3,730.00
+34.4%
12.8%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,100.00n/a5
Nov ’25JP¥2,871.00
JP¥3,730.00
+29.9%
12.8%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,100.00n/a5
Oct ’25JP¥3,205.00
JP¥3,848.00
+20.1%
15.1%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,100.00n/a5
Sep ’25JP¥3,290.00
JP¥3,848.00
+17.0%
15.1%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,100.00n/a5
Aug ’25JP¥3,425.00
JP¥3,728.00
+8.8%
17.6%JP¥4,700.00JP¥3,100.00n/a5
Jul ’25JP¥3,790.00
JP¥3,508.00
-7.4%
12.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥3,000.00n/a5
Jun ’25JP¥3,480.00
JP¥3,428.00
-1.5%
10.5%JP¥4,000.00JP¥3,000.00n/a5
May ’25JP¥3,255.00
JP¥3,428.00
+5.3%
10.5%JP¥4,000.00JP¥3,000.00n/a5
Apr ’25JP¥3,130.00
JP¥3,228.00
+3.1%
10.8%JP¥3,700.00JP¥2,700.00n/a5
Mar ’25JP¥3,350.00
JP¥3,050.00
-9.0%
7.5%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,700.00n/a4
Feb ’25JP¥2,912.00
JP¥3,044.00
+4.5%
6.7%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,700.00n/a5
Jan ’25JP¥2,714.00
JP¥3,005.00
+10.7%
2.4%JP¥3,100.00JP¥2,900.00n/a4
Dec ’24JP¥2,672.00
JP¥3,084.00
+15.4%
5.5%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,900.00n/a5
Nov ’24JP¥2,585.00
JP¥3,084.00
+19.3%
5.5%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,871.005
Oct ’24JP¥2,526.00
JP¥3,164.00
+25.3%
4.1%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,020.00JP¥3,205.005
Sep ’24JP¥2,628.00
JP¥3,164.00
+20.4%
4.1%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,020.00JP¥3,290.005
Aug ’24JP¥2,676.00
JP¥2,956.00
+10.5%
16.9%JP¥3,400.00JP¥1,980.00JP¥3,425.005
Jul ’24JP¥2,895.00
JP¥2,576.00
-11.0%
15.2%JP¥3,100.00JP¥1,980.00JP¥3,790.005
Jun ’24JP¥2,435.00
JP¥2,466.00
+1.3%
15.9%JP¥3,100.00JP¥1,980.00JP¥3,480.005
May ’24JP¥2,076.00
JP¥2,466.00
+18.8%
15.9%JP¥3,100.00JP¥1,980.00JP¥3,255.005
Apr ’24JP¥2,156.00
JP¥2,786.00
+29.2%
22.8%JP¥3,800.00JP¥1,980.00JP¥3,130.005
Mar ’24JP¥2,043.00
JP¥2,786.00
+36.4%
22.8%JP¥3,800.00JP¥1,980.00JP¥3,350.005
Feb ’24JP¥2,112.00
JP¥2,786.00
+31.9%
22.8%JP¥3,800.00JP¥1,980.00JP¥2,912.005
Jan ’24JP¥1,909.00
JP¥3,187.50
+67.0%
25.6%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,250.00JP¥2,714.004
Dec ’23JP¥2,217.00
JP¥3,166.00
+42.8%
23.3%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,250.00JP¥2,672.005
Nov ’23JP¥1,981.00
JP¥3,166.00
+59.8%
23.3%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,250.00JP¥2,585.005

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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