There's Reason For Concern Over Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:4186) Massive 26% Price Jump

Those holding Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. (TSE:4186) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 26% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 25% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 17.1x, since almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 12x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo has been doing relatively well. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Tokyo Ohka Kogyo

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Is There Enough Growth For Tokyo Ohka Kogyo?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 78% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 32% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 12% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 9.8% growth per year, the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Tokyo Ohka Kogyo is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

Tokyo Ohka Kogyo shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.