Osaka Soda Co., Ltd. Recorded A 8.0% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for Osaka Soda Co., Ltd. (TSE:4046) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 15% to JP¥1,446. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥24b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥60.17 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Osaka Soda

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Osaka Soda from four analysts is for revenues of JP¥116.0b in 2026. If met, it would imply a notable 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 32% to JP¥107. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥116.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥108 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 7.6% to JP¥2,318, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Osaka Soda, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,000 and the most bearish at JP¥1,800 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Osaka Soda's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 14% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.7% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.0% per year. So it looks like Osaka Soda is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Osaka Soda's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Osaka Soda. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Osaka Soda analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Osaka Soda you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.