Is Asahi Kasei (TSE:3407) Using Too Much Debt?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Asahi Kasei Corporation (TSE:3407) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Asahi Kasei

What Is Asahi Kasei's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Asahi Kasei had debt of JP¥971.1b at the end of June 2024, a reduction from JP¥1.04t over a year. However, it also had JP¥364.1b in cash, and so its net debt is JP¥607.0b.

A Look At Asahi Kasei's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Asahi Kasei had liabilities of JP¥1.02t due within 12 months and liabilities of JP¥839.4b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of JP¥364.1b as well as receivables valued at JP¥501.1b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total JP¥995.7b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of JP¥1.40t. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Asahi Kasei's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.7 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 1k times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. It is well worth noting that Asahi Kasei's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 68% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Asahi Kasei's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Asahi Kasei reported free cash flow worth 11% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.

Our View

Asahi Kasei's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. On the other hand, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow makes us a little less comfortable about its debt. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Asahi Kasei's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Asahi Kasei you should know about.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.