Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc.

TSE:8766 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥11.8t

Tokio Marine Holdings Valuation

Is 8766 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8766 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8766 (¥6054) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥13070.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8766 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8766?

Key metric: As 8766 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 8766. This is calculated by dividing 8766's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 8766's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.4x
EarningsJP¥765.17b
Market CapJP¥11.80t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8766's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8766 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.6x
8725 MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings
12.3x8.9%JP¥5.7t
8630 Sompo Holdings
7.9x2.1%JP¥3.4t
8750 Dai-ichi Life Holdings
9.2x1.0%JP¥3.6t
6178 Japan Post Holdings
13.2x7.7%JP¥4.7t
8766 Tokio Marine Holdings
15.4x7.6%JP¥11.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8766 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the peer average (10.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8766's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Insurance Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
8766 15.4xIndustry Avg. 11.0xNo. of Companies44PE0816243240+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8766 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the Asian Insurance industry average (11x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8766's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8766 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.4x
Fair PE Ratio12.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 8766 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8766 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥6,054.00
JP¥6,330.91
+4.6%
14.5%JP¥8,000.00JP¥4,400.00n/a11
Nov ’25JP¥5,435.00
JP¥6,330.91
+16.5%
14.5%JP¥8,000.00JP¥4,400.00n/a11
Oct ’25JP¥5,379.00
JP¥6,355.45
+18.2%
14.5%JP¥8,000.00JP¥4,400.00n/a11
Sep ’25JP¥5,506.00
JP¥6,213.00
+12.8%
19.6%JP¥8,000.00JP¥3,400.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥5,618.00
JP¥6,193.00
+10.2%
19.8%JP¥8,000.00JP¥3,400.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥6,147.00
JP¥5,599.09
-8.9%
25.2%JP¥8,000.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Jun ’25JP¥5,429.00
JP¥4,795.45
-11.7%
22.2%JP¥6,200.00JP¥3,100.00n/a11
May ’25JP¥4,973.00
JP¥4,704.55
-5.4%
22.4%JP¥6,200.00JP¥3,100.00n/a11
Apr ’25JP¥4,623.00
JP¥4,495.83
-2.8%
20.4%JP¥6,000.00JP¥3,100.00n/a12
Mar ’25JP¥4,448.00
JP¥4,111.82
-7.6%
13.3%JP¥5,000.00JP¥3,200.00n/a11
Feb ’25JP¥3,884.00
JP¥3,787.27
-2.5%
12.5%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,800.00n/a11
Jan ’25JP¥3,529.00
JP¥3,690.83
+4.6%
13.5%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,800.00n/a12
Dec ’24JP¥3,670.00
JP¥3,578.46
-2.5%
10.8%JP¥4,150.00JP¥2,800.00n/a13
Nov ’24JP¥3,420.00
JP¥3,490.00
+2.0%
10.8%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,800.00JP¥5,435.0013
Oct ’24JP¥3,465.00
JP¥3,414.72
-1.5%
13.4%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,366.67JP¥5,379.0012
Sep ’24JP¥3,263.00
JP¥3,448.06
+5.7%
14.5%JP¥4,200.00JP¥2,366.67JP¥5,506.0012
Aug ’24JP¥3,250.00
JP¥3,443.33
+5.9%
15.1%JP¥4,200.00JP¥2,366.67JP¥5,618.0011
Jul ’24JP¥3,315.00
JP¥3,457.88
+4.3%
14.9%JP¥4,200.00JP¥2,366.67JP¥6,147.0011
Jun ’24JP¥3,089.00
JP¥3,160.61
+2.3%
13.1%JP¥3,800.00JP¥2,366.67JP¥5,429.0011
May ’24JP¥2,736.50
JP¥3,106.67
+13.5%
12.6%JP¥3,700.00JP¥2,366.67JP¥4,973.0013
Apr ’24JP¥2,547.00
JP¥3,105.56
+21.9%
13.1%JP¥3,700.00JP¥2,366.67JP¥4,623.0012
Mar ’24JP¥2,891.00
JP¥3,033.06
+4.9%
13.1%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,330.00JP¥4,448.0012
Feb ’24JP¥2,751.00
JP¥3,035.13
+10.3%
12.5%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,330.00JP¥3,884.0013
Jan ’24JP¥2,827.50
JP¥3,009.50
+6.4%
11.9%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,330.00JP¥3,529.0014
Dec ’23JP¥2,802.50
JP¥2,899.07
+3.4%
11.1%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,330.00JP¥3,670.0014
Nov ’23JP¥2,722.00
JP¥2,850.05
+4.7%
10.9%JP¥3,400.00JP¥2,333.33JP¥3,420.0014

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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