MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. Beat Revenue Forecasts By 15%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

It's been a good week for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.1% to JP¥3,490. It was a mildly positive result, with revenues exceeding expectations at JP¥2.0t, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥446 were in line with analyst forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings after the latest results.

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Following last week's earnings report, MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings' eight analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥6.50t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 11% to JP¥419 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥6.81t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥406 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

View our latest analysis for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings

There's been no real change to the average price target of JP¥3,964, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings at JP¥4,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,270. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 8.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings' earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.