Analysts Are Updating Their MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) Estimates After Its Annual Results

As you might know, MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8725) just kicked off its latest yearly results with some very strong numbers. The company beat expectations with revenues of JP¥6.4t arriving 3.9% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were JP¥446, 2.6% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥6.58t in 2026. This would be a modest 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 2.5% to JP¥445 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥6.88t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥448 in 2026. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

View our latest analysis for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of JP¥3,825, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings' market value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,500 and the most bearish at JP¥3,200 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.