The five-year shareholder returns and company earnings persist lower as Pigeon (TSE:7956) stock falls a further 3.6% in past week

We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But no-one is immune from buying too high. Zooming in on an example, the Pigeon Corporation (TSE:7956) share price dropped 61% in the last half decade. We certainly feel for shareholders who bought near the top.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the five years over which the share price declined, Pigeon's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 6.3% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 17% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that Pigeon has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Pigeon, it has a TSR of -53% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Pigeon shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 16% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 9% per year over five years. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Pigeon you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.