Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Mandom Corporation (TSE:4917) After Its First-Quarter Results

Last week, you might have seen that Mandom Corporation (TSE:4917) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.8% to JP¥1,162 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥19b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥57.84. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mandom after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Mandom

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mandom's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥76.4b in 2025. This reflects a modest 3.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 58% to JP¥22.15 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥76.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥22.57 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,253, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Mandom, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,300 and the most bearish at JP¥1,200 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that Mandom's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 4.2% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 2.5% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.1% annually. So while Mandom's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,253, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mandom. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Mandom analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Mandom that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.