Shiseido Company, Limited Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

Shiseido Company, Limited (TSE:4911) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of JP¥27.06 per share on revenues of JP¥991b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Shiseido Company

Following last week's earnings report, Shiseido Company's 15 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥1.00t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Shiseido Company forecast to report a statutory profit of JP¥60.42 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.01t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥74.74 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

The average price target fell 5.1% to JP¥2,890, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Shiseido Company analyst has a price target of JP¥3,240 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,530. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Shiseido Company is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shiseido Company's past performance and to peers in the same industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 0.4% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.0% annually. Although Shiseido Company's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shiseido Company. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Shiseido Company's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Shiseido Company analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Shiseido Company is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.