Kao Corporation (TSE:4452) On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Stock?

Kao's (TSE:4452) stock up by 2.6% over the past three months. As most would know, long-term fundamentals have a strong correlation with market price movements, so we decided to look at the company's key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on Kao's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Kao is:

10% = JP¥110b ÷ JP¥1.1t (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every ¥1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ¥0.10 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Kao

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Kao's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE

To begin with, Kao seems to have a respectable ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 9.0% the company's ROE looks quite decent. For this reason, Kao's five year net income decline of 17% raises the question as to why the decent ROE didn't translate into growth. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven't been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company's growth. Such as, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Kao's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 4.0% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. What is 4452 worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether 4452 is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Kao Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Kao's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 81% (or a retention ratio of 19%). The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run.

Moreover, Kao has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that Kao certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, while the company does have a high ROE, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing. This can be blamed on the fact that it reinvests only a small portion of its profits and pays out the rest as dividends. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.