Kao Corporation

TSE:4452 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥2.9t

Kao Valuation

Is 4452 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4452 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4452 (¥6208) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥5967.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4452 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4452?

Key metric: As 4452 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4452. This is calculated by dividing 4452's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4452's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio35x
EarningsJP¥82.36b
Market CapJP¥2.88t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4452's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4452 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average40.2x
4527 Rohto PharmaceuticalLtd
23.5x13.4%JP¥640.7b
4967 Kobayashi Pharmaceutical
41.8x19.0%JP¥425.9b
4922 KOSÉ
47.7x21.8%JP¥377.8b
4921 Fancl
47.8x15.6%JP¥337.9b
4452 Kao
35x12.6%JP¥2.9t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4452 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the peer average (40.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4452's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Personal Products Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
4452 35.0xIndustry Avg. 24.7xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4452 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the JP Personal Products industry average (24.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4452's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4452 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35x
Fair PE Ratio38x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4452 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4452 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥6,208.00
JP¥7,260.00
+16.9%
8.5%JP¥8,400.00JP¥6,300.00n/a10
Nov ’25JP¥6,534.00
JP¥7,320.00
+12.0%
8.7%JP¥8,400.00JP¥6,300.00n/a10
Oct ’25JP¥7,050.00
JP¥7,405.00
+5.0%
8.2%JP¥8,400.00JP¥6,300.00n/a10
Sep ’25JP¥6,545.00
JP¥7,345.00
+12.2%
7.6%JP¥7,900.00JP¥6,300.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥6,532.00
JP¥7,213.00
+10.4%
8.6%JP¥8,100.00JP¥6,300.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥6,471.00
JP¥7,153.00
+10.5%
8.2%JP¥8,100.00JP¥6,300.00n/a10
Jun ’25JP¥6,888.00
JP¥7,073.00
+2.7%
8.0%JP¥8,100.00JP¥6,300.00n/a10
May ’25JP¥6,592.00
JP¥6,457.00
-2.0%
11.6%JP¥7,500.00JP¥5,500.00n/a10
Apr ’25JP¥5,763.00
JP¥6,385.56
+10.8%
11.7%JP¥7,500.00JP¥5,500.00n/a9
Mar ’25JP¥5,706.00
JP¥6,617.78
+16.0%
16.5%JP¥8,800.00JP¥5,270.00n/a9
Feb ’25JP¥5,830.00
JP¥6,595.56
+13.1%
16.8%JP¥8,800.00JP¥5,270.00n/a9
Jan ’25JP¥5,800.00
JP¥6,473.33
+11.6%
16.8%JP¥8,800.00JP¥5,270.00n/a9
Dec ’24JP¥5,715.00
JP¥6,235.45
+9.1%
18.9%JP¥8,800.00JP¥4,300.00n/a11
Nov ’24JP¥5,599.00
JP¥5,952.73
+6.3%
21.3%JP¥8,800.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥6,534.0011
Oct ’24JP¥5,551.00
JP¥5,907.27
+6.4%
21.6%JP¥8,800.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥7,050.0011
Sep ’24JP¥5,674.00
JP¥5,780.00
+1.9%
23.4%JP¥8,800.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥6,545.0011
Aug ’24JP¥5,415.00
JP¥5,813.64
+7.4%
24.7%JP¥8,800.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥6,532.0011
Jul ’24JP¥5,214.00
JP¥5,813.64
+11.5%
24.7%JP¥8,800.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥6,471.0011
Jun ’24JP¥4,936.00
JP¥5,954.17
+20.6%
22.1%JP¥8,800.00JP¥3,900.00JP¥6,888.0012
May ’24JP¥5,529.00
JP¥6,020.00
+8.9%
21.2%JP¥8,800.00JP¥3,950.00JP¥6,592.0012
Apr ’24JP¥5,167.00
JP¥6,058.18
+17.2%
21.7%JP¥8,800.00JP¥3,950.00JP¥5,763.0011
Mar ’24JP¥5,030.00
JP¥6,020.00
+19.7%
20.7%JP¥8,800.00JP¥3,950.00JP¥5,706.0012
Feb ’24JP¥5,174.00
JP¥6,223.33
+20.3%
19.6%JP¥8,800.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,830.0012
Jan ’24JP¥5,255.00
JP¥6,021.54
+14.6%
21.7%JP¥8,800.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,800.0013
Dec ’23JP¥5,459.00
JP¥6,105.71
+11.8%
21.0%JP¥8,800.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,715.0014
Nov ’23JP¥5,602.00
JP¥6,275.33
+12.0%
19.7%JP¥8,800.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,599.0015

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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