HOYA Corporation (TSE:7741) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a good week for HOYA Corporation (TSE:7741) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 9.1% to JP¥18,055. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥869b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥581. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from HOYA's 15 analysts is for revenues of JP¥912.5b in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 13% to JP¥667. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥925.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥680 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for HOYA

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥22,088. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values HOYA at JP¥25,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥17,200. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the HOYA's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that HOYA's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than HOYA.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HOYA's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥22,088, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on HOYA. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for HOYA going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.