Terumo Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Investors in Terumo Corporation (TSE:4543) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.7% to close at JP¥2,736 following the release of its first-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥260b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Terumo surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥28.37 per share, a notable 16% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Terumo's 15 analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.07t in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 2.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 16% to JP¥98.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.06t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥97.18 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Terumo

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,176, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Terumo analyst has a price target of JP¥4,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,550. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Terumo's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Terumo's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Terumo.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Terumo analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Terumo Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.