Is M3, Inc. (TSE:2413) Worth JP¥2.1k Based On Its Intrinsic Value?

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, M3 fair value estimate is JP¥1,696
• M3's JP¥2,136 share price signals that it might be 26% overvalued
• Analyst price target for 2413 is JP¥2,762, which is 63% above our fair value estimate

Does the February share price for M3, Inc. (TSE:2413) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for M3

The Method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥45.9b	JP¥46.9b	JP¥53.8b	JP¥50.4b	JP¥57.7b	JP¥60.0b	JP¥61.6b	JP¥62.9b	JP¥63.8b	JP¥64.5b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x7	Analyst x7	Analyst x4	Analyst x4	Est @ 3.92%	Est @ 2.79%	Est @ 2.00%	Est @ 1.45%	Est @ 1.06%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 5.4%	JP¥43.6k	JP¥42.3k	JP¥46.0k	JP¥40.9k	JP¥44.4k	JP¥43.7k	JP¥42.7k	JP¥41.3k	JP¥39.7k	JP¥38.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥423b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥64b× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (5.4%– 0.2%) = JP¥1.2t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥1.2t÷ ( 1 + 5.4%)¹⁰= JP¥729b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is JP¥1.2t. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of JP¥2.1k, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at M3 as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.930. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for M3

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For M3, we've put together three additional aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with M3 .
2. Future Earnings: How does 2413's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Japanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.