Seihyo Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:2872) 26% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Seihyo Co., Ltd. (TSE:2872) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26% share price drop in the last month. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 47% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, Seihyo may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 27.2x, since almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 13x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

For instance, Seihyo's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Seihyo

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Is There Enough Growth For Seihyo?

Seihyo's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 33%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 24% in total. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 9.8% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it concerning that Seihyo is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Seihyo's P/E

Even after such a strong price drop, Seihyo's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Seihyo currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Seihyo (including 2 which are a bit concerning).

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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