Kewpie Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Kewpie Corporation (TSE:2809) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to JP¥4,090 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥132b, although statutory earnings per share came in 16% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥52.63 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Kewpie from five analysts is for revenues of JP¥528.5b in 2026. If met, it would imply an okay 4.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 6.5% to JP¥189 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥533.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥189 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Kewpie

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥4,250, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kewpie at JP¥4,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,000. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Kewpie's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.5% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% per year. Kewpie is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Kewpie analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Kewpie , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.