Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. (TSE:2502) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. (TSE:2502) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to JP¥1,927 in the past week. Asahi Group Holdings reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of JP¥630b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥14.32, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Asahi Group Holdings. View them for free.

Following last week's earnings report, Asahi Group Holdings' twelve analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥2.97t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥128, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.97t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥130 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Asahi Group Holdings

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥2,356, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Asahi Group Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,700 and the most bearish at JP¥2,100 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Asahi Group Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Asahi Group Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.9% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Asahi Group Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Asahi Group Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Asahi Group Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Asahi Group Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.