Calculating The Fair Value Of Kakiyasu Honten Co., Ltd. (TSE:2294)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Kakiyasu Honten is JP¥2,293 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Kakiyasu Honten's JP¥2,748 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Kakiyasu Honten Co., Ltd. (TSE:2294) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Kakiyasu Honten

The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥1.53b	JP¥1.35b	JP¥1.24b	JP¥1.17b	JP¥1.12b	JP¥1.09b	JP¥1.07b	JP¥1.06b	JP¥1.05b	JP¥1.04b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -16.87%	Est @ -11.76%	Est @ -8.19%	Est @ -5.68%	Est @ -3.93%	Est @ -2.70%	Est @ -1.84%	Est @ -1.24%	Est @ -0.82%	Est @ -0.53%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 4.7%	JP¥1.5k	JP¥1.2k	JP¥1.1k	JP¥972	JP¥892	JP¥829	JP¥778	JP¥734	JP¥695	JP¥661

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥9.3b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥1.0b× (1 + 0.2%) ÷ (4.7%– 0.2%) = JP¥23b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥23b÷ ( 1 + 4.7%)¹⁰= JP¥15b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is JP¥24b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of JP¥2.7k, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kakiyasu Honten as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Kakiyasu Honten, there are three pertinent aspects you should consider:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Kakiyasu Honten has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Japanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.