Morinaga&Co., Ltd.

TSE:2201 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥242.4b

Morinaga&Co Valuation

Is 2201 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2201 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2201 (¥2703) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥4582.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2201 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2201?

Key metric: As 2201 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2201. This is calculated by dividing 2201's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2201's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.6x
EarningsJP¥15.53b
Market CapJP¥242.42b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2201's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2201 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.6x
2296 Itoham Yonekyu Holdings
15.1x5.3%JP¥214.2b
2810 House Foods Group
21.6x6.7%JP¥265.3b
2264 Morinaga Milk Industry
21.1x11.5%JP¥249.3b
1332 Nissui
12.5x6.7%JP¥282.9b
2201 Morinaga&Co
15.6x6.8%JP¥242.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2201 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the peer average (17.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2201's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Food Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2215 First Baking
1.7xn/aUS$25.40m
No more companies available in this PE range
2201 15.6xIndustry Avg. 15.1xNo. of Companies17PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2201 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the JP Food industry average (15.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2201's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2201 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.6x
Fair PE Ratio18.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2201 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2201 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,703.00
JP¥3,346.67
+23.8%
1.2%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,310.00n/a3
Nov ’25JP¥2,785.00
JP¥3,270.00
+17.4%
3.8%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,100.00n/a3
Oct ’25JP¥2,846.50
JP¥3,270.00
+14.9%
3.8%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,100.00n/a3
Sep ’25JP¥2,749.50
JP¥3,270.00
+18.9%
3.8%JP¥3,400.00JP¥3,100.00n/a3
Aug ’25JP¥2,829.00
JP¥3,303.33
+16.8%
4.9%JP¥3,500.00JP¥3,100.00n/a3
Jul ’25JP¥2,480.50
JP¥3,416.67
+37.7%
2.3%JP¥3,500.00JP¥3,310.00n/a3
Jun ’25JP¥2,509.00
JP¥3,500.00
+39.5%
4.6%JP¥3,750.00JP¥3,310.00n/a4
May ’25JP¥2,544.50
JP¥3,530.00
+38.7%
5.9%JP¥3,870.00JP¥3,310.00n/a4
Apr ’25JP¥2,631.50
JP¥3,530.00
+34.1%
5.9%JP¥3,870.00JP¥3,310.00n/a4
Mar ’25JP¥2,665.50
JP¥3,500.00
+31.3%
6.5%JP¥3,870.00JP¥3,280.00n/a4
Feb ’25JP¥2,849.50
JP¥3,363.75
+18.0%
3.8%JP¥3,575.00JP¥3,250.00n/a4
Jan ’25JP¥2,558.50
JP¥3,363.75
+31.5%
3.8%JP¥3,575.00JP¥3,250.00n/a4
Dec ’24JP¥2,648.00
JP¥3,218.75
+21.6%
10.0%JP¥3,575.00JP¥2,700.00n/a4
Nov ’24JP¥2,753.50
JP¥3,112.50
+13.0%
8.0%JP¥3,350.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,785.004
Oct ’24JP¥2,701.00
JP¥2,975.00
+10.1%
9.2%JP¥3,250.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,846.502
Sep ’24JP¥2,668.00
JP¥2,983.33
+11.8%
7.5%JP¥3,250.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,749.503
Aug ’24JP¥2,346.00
JP¥2,950.00
+25.7%
6.3%JP¥3,150.00JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,829.003
Jul ’24JP¥2,252.50
JP¥2,816.67
+25.0%
13.2%JP¥3,150.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,480.503
Jun ’24JP¥2,222.50
JP¥2,616.67
+17.7%
11.1%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,509.003
May ’24JP¥2,055.00
JP¥2,333.33
+13.5%
7.1%JP¥2,550.00JP¥2,150.00JP¥2,544.503
Apr ’24JP¥1,877.50
JP¥2,200.00
+17.2%
3.2%JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,150.00JP¥2,631.503
Mar ’24JP¥1,942.50
JP¥2,200.00
+13.3%
3.2%JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,150.00JP¥2,665.503
Feb ’24JP¥1,915.00
JP¥2,200.00
+14.9%
3.2%JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,150.00JP¥2,849.503
Jan ’24JP¥1,962.50
JP¥2,200.00
+12.1%
3.2%JP¥2,300.00JP¥2,150.00JP¥2,558.503
Dec ’23JP¥1,850.00
JP¥2,071.67
+12.0%
10.1%JP¥2,365.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,648.003
Nov ’23JP¥1,850.00
JP¥2,071.67
+12.0%
10.1%JP¥2,365.00JP¥1,900.00JP¥2,753.503

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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