ARIAKE JAPAN Co., Ltd.

TSE:2815 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥168.8b

ARIAKE JAPAN Valuation

Is 2815 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2815 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2815 (¥5310) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥7047.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2815 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2815?

Key metric: As 2815 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2815. This is calculated by dividing 2815's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2815's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio27.6x
EarningsJP¥6.13b
Market CapJP¥168.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2815's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2815 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.9x
2001 Nippn
5.1x-20.8%JP¥165.6b
2602 Nisshin OilliO GroupLtd
11.1x8.9%JP¥162.1b
1333 Maruha Nichiro
6.4xn/aJP¥153.1b
2270 MEGMILK SNOW BRANDLtd
8.9x-4.3%JP¥182.8b
2815 ARIAKE JAPAN
27.6x18.0%JP¥168.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2815 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.6x) compared to the peer average (7.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2815's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Food Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2215 First Baking
1.9xn/aUS$26.23m
No more companies available in this PE range
2815 27.6xIndustry Avg. 15.0xNo. of Companies19PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2815 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.6x) compared to the JP Food industry average (15x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2815's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2815 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.6x
Fair PE Ratio22.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2815 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2815 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥5,310.00
JP¥6,216.67
+17.1%
8.9%JP¥6,850.00JP¥5,500.00n/a3
Nov ’25JP¥5,280.00
JP¥5,983.33
+13.3%
14.5%JP¥6,850.00JP¥4,800.00n/a3
Oct ’25JP¥5,360.00
JP¥5,983.33
+11.6%
14.5%JP¥6,850.00JP¥4,800.00n/a3
Sep ’25JP¥4,770.00
JP¥5,983.33
+25.4%
14.5%JP¥6,850.00JP¥4,800.00n/a3
Aug ’25JP¥5,230.00
JP¥6,033.33
+15.4%
12.6%JP¥6,800.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
Jul ’25JP¥5,150.00
JP¥6,033.33
+17.2%
12.6%JP¥6,800.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
Jun ’25JP¥5,290.00
JP¥6,033.33
+14.1%
12.6%JP¥6,800.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
May ’25JP¥5,090.00
JP¥5,633.33
+10.7%
8.0%JP¥6,000.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
Apr ’25JP¥5,180.00
JP¥5,566.67
+7.5%
7.5%JP¥6,000.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
Mar ’25JP¥5,320.00
JP¥5,566.67
+4.6%
7.5%JP¥6,000.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
Feb ’25JP¥4,745.00
JP¥5,466.67
+15.2%
6.0%JP¥5,700.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
Jan ’25JP¥4,645.00
JP¥5,733.33
+23.4%
10.7%JP¥6,500.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
Dec ’24JP¥4,620.00
JP¥5,733.33
+24.1%
10.7%JP¥6,500.00JP¥5,000.00n/a3
Nov ’24JP¥4,865.00
JP¥5,733.33
+17.8%
10.7%JP¥6,500.00JP¥5,000.00JP¥5,280.003
Oct ’24JP¥5,074.00
JP¥6,100.00
+20.2%
6.6%JP¥6,500.00JP¥5,700.00JP¥5,360.002
Sep ’24JP¥5,418.00
JP¥5,400.00
-0.3%
19.3%JP¥6,500.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥4,770.003
Aug ’24JP¥5,158.00
JP¥5,366.67
+4.0%
19.3%JP¥6,500.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,230.003
Jul ’24JP¥5,303.00
JP¥5,366.67
+1.2%
19.3%JP¥6,500.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,150.003
Jun ’24JP¥5,040.00
JP¥5,366.67
+6.5%
19.3%JP¥6,500.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,290.003
May ’24JP¥5,610.00
JP¥5,266.67
-6.1%
19.4%JP¥6,500.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,090.003
Apr ’24JP¥4,880.00
JP¥5,266.67
+7.9%
19.4%JP¥6,500.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,180.003
Mar ’24JP¥4,725.00
JP¥5,725.00
+21.2%
20.6%JP¥7,000.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥5,320.004
Feb ’24JP¥4,355.00
JP¥5,950.00
+36.6%
22.3%JP¥7,600.00JP¥4,000.00JP¥4,745.004
Jan ’24JP¥4,365.00
JP¥6,100.00
+39.7%
14.5%JP¥7,600.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥4,645.005
Dec ’23JP¥4,605.00
JP¥6,100.00
+32.5%
14.5%JP¥7,600.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥4,620.005
Nov ’23JP¥5,250.00
JP¥6,100.00
+16.2%
14.5%JP¥7,600.00JP¥5,200.00JP¥4,865.005

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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