Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.

TSE:5021 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥559.5b

Cosmo Energy Holdings Valuation

Is 5021 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 5021 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 5021 (¥6531) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1988.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 5021 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 5021?

Key metric: As 5021 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 5021. This is calculated by dividing 5021's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 5021's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.3x
EarningsJP¥66.62b
Market CapJP¥559.47b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 5021's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 5021 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
5019 Idemitsu KosanLtd
8.1x2.3%JP¥1.3t
8133 Itochu EnexLtd
14.2xn/aJP¥181.5b
5020 ENEOS Holdings
11.7x12.4%JP¥2.2t
8097 San-Ai Obbli
11.4xn/aJP¥113.7b
5021 Cosmo Energy Holdings
8.3x9.6%JP¥559.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 5021 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 5021's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Oil and Gas Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
5021 8.3xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies39PE0816243240+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 5021 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the Asian Oil and Gas industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 5021's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

5021 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.3x
Fair PE Ratio7.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 5021 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 5021 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥6,531.00
JP¥9,078.33
+39.0%
13.1%JP¥10,700.00JP¥7,270.00n/a6
Dec ’25JP¥6,510.00
JP¥9,233.33
+41.8%
13.4%JP¥10,700.00JP¥7,270.00n/a6
Nov ’25JP¥7,479.00
JP¥9,403.33
+25.7%
10.6%JP¥10,700.00JP¥8,290.00n/a6
Oct ’25JP¥7,954.00
JP¥8,917.14
+12.1%
16.9%JP¥10,700.00JP¥6,000.00n/a7
Sep ’25JP¥8,050.00
JP¥8,337.14
+3.6%
19.1%JP¥10,700.00JP¥6,000.00n/a7
Aug ’25JP¥7,979.00
JP¥8,340.00
+4.5%
19.1%JP¥10,700.00JP¥6,000.00n/a7
Jul ’25JP¥8,304.00
JP¥7,946.67
-4.3%
17.2%JP¥9,900.00JP¥6,000.00n/a6
Jun ’25JP¥7,812.00
JP¥7,521.67
-3.7%
15.7%JP¥8,820.00JP¥5,800.00n/a6
May ’25JP¥7,514.00
JP¥7,368.33
-1.9%
15.3%JP¥8,820.00JP¥5,800.00n/a6
Apr ’25JP¥7,344.00
JP¥7,101.67
-3.3%
14.9%JP¥8,820.00JP¥5,800.00n/a6
Mar ’25JP¥6,692.00
JP¥6,091.67
-9.0%
20.0%JP¥7,390.00JP¥3,660.00n/a6
Feb ’25JP¥6,169.00
JP¥5,648.00
-8.4%
23.4%JP¥7,000.00JP¥3,660.00n/a5
Jan ’25JP¥5,666.00
JP¥5,548.00
-2.1%
22.6%JP¥7,000.00JP¥3,660.00n/a5
Dec ’24JP¥5,616.00
JP¥5,513.33
-1.8%
19.3%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥6,510.006
Nov ’24JP¥5,550.00
JP¥5,204.29
-6.2%
17.4%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥7,479.007
Oct ’24JP¥5,260.00
JP¥5,075.71
-3.5%
19.7%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥7,954.007
Sep ’24JP¥5,341.00
JP¥4,690.00
-12.2%
13.1%JP¥5,510.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥8,050.007
Aug ’24JP¥4,485.00
JP¥4,355.71
-2.9%
10.9%JP¥5,000.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥7,979.007
Jul ’24JP¥3,930.00
JP¥4,355.71
+10.8%
10.9%JP¥5,000.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥8,304.007
Jun ’24JP¥3,950.00
JP¥4,412.86
+11.7%
12.8%JP¥5,400.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥7,812.007
May ’24JP¥4,350.00
JP¥4,710.00
+8.3%
22.1%JP¥6,940.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥7,514.007
Apr ’24JP¥4,285.00
JP¥4,638.57
+8.3%
23.0%JP¥6,940.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥7,344.007
Mar ’24JP¥4,115.00
JP¥4,635.71
+12.7%
22.5%JP¥6,940.00JP¥3,660.00JP¥6,692.007
Feb ’24JP¥3,615.00
JP¥4,515.71
+24.9%
29.1%JP¥7,200.00JP¥2,560.00JP¥6,169.007
Jan ’24JP¥3,490.00
JP¥4,530.00
+29.8%
28.9%JP¥7,200.00JP¥2,560.00JP¥5,666.007
Dec ’23JP¥3,890.00
JP¥4,544.29
+16.8%
29.0%JP¥7,200.00JP¥2,560.00JP¥5,616.007

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 08:27
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. is covered by 16 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Takashi MiyazakiCitigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.
Takashi MiyazakiCitigroup Inc
Syusaku NishikawaDaiwa Securities Co. Ltd.