We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Idemitsu KosanLtd Valuation

Is 5019 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 5019?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

5019 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.4x
PEG Ratio-0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 5019's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 5019 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.3x
5020 ENEOS Holdings
2.5x-8.4%JP¥1.4t
5021 Cosmo Energy Holdings
1.7x-7.7%JP¥307.5b
8133 Itochu EnexLtd
8.3xn/aJP¥119.9b
8097 San-Ai Obbli
8.8xn/aJP¥84.0b
5019 Idemitsu KosanLtd
2.2x-21.8%JP¥923.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 5019 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.2x) compared to the peer average (5.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 5019's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-9.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 5019 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.2x) compared to the JP Oil and Gas industry average (8.4x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 5019's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

5019 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio2.2x
Fair PE Ratio2.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 5019 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 5019 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 5019 (¥3155) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥2310.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 5019 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 5019 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,155.00
JP¥3,950.00
+25.2%
17.3%JP¥5,300.00JP¥2,790.00n/a8
Jan ’24JP¥3,070.00
JP¥3,950.00
+28.7%
15.4%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a8
Dec ’23JP¥3,220.00
JP¥3,987.50
+23.8%
15.5%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a8
Nov ’23JP¥3,295.00
JP¥3,975.00
+20.6%
14.8%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a8
Oct ’23JP¥3,135.00
JP¥4,012.50
+28.0%
14.8%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a8
Sep ’23JP¥3,520.00
JP¥3,962.50
+12.6%
14.9%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a8
Aug ’23JP¥3,415.00
JP¥3,906.25
+14.4%
14.5%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a8
Jul ’23JP¥3,270.00
JP¥3,927.78
+20.1%
13.7%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a9
Jun ’23JP¥3,545.00
JP¥3,753.33
+5.9%
15.8%JP¥5,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a9
May ’23JP¥3,405.00
JP¥3,536.67
+3.9%
12.3%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,790.00n/a9
Apr ’23JP¥3,255.00
JP¥3,458.89
+6.3%
12.6%JP¥4,500.00JP¥2,790.00n/a9
Mar ’23JP¥3,110.00
JP¥3,403.33
+9.4%
9.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a9
Feb ’23JP¥2,919.00
JP¥3,401.11
+16.5%
9.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,790.00n/a9
Jan ’23JP¥2,937.00
JP¥3,415.00
+16.3%
9.0%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,900.00JP¥3,070.008
Dec ’22JP¥2,916.00
JP¥3,270.00
+12.1%
12.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,710.00JP¥3,220.009
Nov ’22JP¥3,140.00
JP¥3,057.00
-2.6%
16.4%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥3,295.0010
Oct ’22JP¥2,905.00
JP¥2,887.00
-0.6%
11.5%JP¥3,610.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥3,135.0010
Sep ’22JP¥2,661.00
JP¥2,867.00
+7.7%
11.3%JP¥3,610.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥3,520.0010
Aug ’22JP¥2,574.00
JP¥2,857.00
+11.0%
11.2%JP¥3,610.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥3,415.0010
Jul ’22JP¥2,667.00
JP¥2,837.00
+6.4%
11.6%JP¥3,610.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥3,270.0010
Jun ’22JP¥2,608.00
JP¥2,843.00
+9.0%
11.4%JP¥3,610.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥3,545.0010
May ’22JP¥2,617.00
JP¥2,819.50
+7.7%
8.4%JP¥3,205.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥3,405.0010
Apr ’22JP¥2,787.00
JP¥2,819.50
+1.2%
8.4%JP¥3,205.00JP¥2,350.00JP¥3,255.0010
Mar ’22JP¥2,808.00
JP¥2,719.50
-3.2%
10.3%JP¥3,205.00JP¥2,300.00JP¥3,110.0010
Feb ’22JP¥2,439.00
JP¥2,566.50
+5.2%
13.7%JP¥3,205.00JP¥2,200.00JP¥2,919.0010
Jan ’22JP¥2,270.00
JP¥2,551.11
+12.4%
13.8%JP¥3,100.00JP¥2,200.00JP¥2,937.009

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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