Earnings Update: Japan Exchange Group, Inc. (TSE:8697) Just Reported Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Japan Exchange Group, Inc. (TSE:8697) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to JP¥3,614 in the past week. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of JP¥117 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of JP¥158b came in 3.1% ahead of analyst predictions. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Japan Exchange Group

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Japan Exchange Group are now predicting revenues of JP¥161.9b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥118, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥161.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥119 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,418, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Japan Exchange Group at JP¥5,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,620. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Japan Exchange Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Japan Exchange Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Japan Exchange Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Japan Exchange Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Japan Exchange Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Japan Exchange Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Japan Exchange Group .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.