Will Nomura’s Dividend Hike Following Record Results Change Nomura Holdings’ (TSE:8604) Narrative?

• Nomura Holdings announced a dividend increase to ¥27 per share for shareholders of record as of September 30, 2025, with payment scheduled for December 1, 2025, up from ¥23 per share the previous year.
• This dividend boost follows record performances in equities trading, wealth management inflows, and significant year-on-year revenue and income growth reported in the company’s latest financial results.
• We'll explore how Nomura's dividend hike, reflecting management confidence, could influence the company’s investment narrative and long-term prospects.

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Nomura Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Nomura Holdings, you need confidence in its ability to maintain growth in its wealth and asset management operations, benefit from demographic shifts in Asia-Pacific, and use digital transformation to offset fee compression and intensifying competition. The dividend increase to ¥27 per share highlights management’s optimism but does not materially change the biggest near-term catalyst, continued strong recurring revenue inflows, or the key risk, which remains margin pressure from new digital competitors and slower domestic demographic trends.

Among Nomura’s recent announcements, the share repurchase program completed in July 2025 is particularly relevant. Buybacks, alongside higher dividends, can support shareholder returns and signal a disciplined approach to capital allocation, especially as the company seeks to strengthen its global profile and manage accelerating cost pressures.

However, investors should also pay close attention to increasing competition from fintechs and the impact on margins...

Read the full narrative on Nomura Holdings (it's free!)

Nomura Holdings is projected to deliver ¥1,964.2 billion in revenue and ¥334.2 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes revenue will remain flat with a 0.0% annual growth rate and earnings will decrease by ¥42.2 billion from the current ¥376.4 billion.

Uncover how Nomura Holdings' forecasts yield a ¥1083 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings range widely from ¥995 to ¥1,477,588, with perspectives spread across several price bands. While market participants show a broad spectrum of opinions, ongoing margin pressure from digital competition could significantly shape the company’s future financial performance and investor outlook.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Nomura Holdings - why the stock might be worth 9% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Nomura Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Nomura Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Nomura Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nomura Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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