Premium Group Co., Ltd. Just Missed Revenue By 15%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a mediocre week for Premium Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:7199) shareholders, with the stock dropping 11% to JP¥2,250 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were JP¥9.3b, 15% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of JP¥119 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Premium Group

Following the latest results, Premium Group's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥48.8b in 2026. This would be a major 36% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 26% to JP¥182. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥49.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥174 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥3,867, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Premium Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,500 and the most bearish at JP¥3,400 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Premium Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 28% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 19% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Premium Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Premium Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,867, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Premium Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Premium Group that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.