KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:3543) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.2% to close at JP¥2,897 following the release of its annual results. Revenues of JP¥47b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥128, missing estimates by 6.8%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from KOMEDA Holdings' six analysts is for revenues of JP¥51.5b in 2026. This reflects a decent 9.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 16% to JP¥148. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥52.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥149 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for KOMEDA Holdings

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of JP¥3,230, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on KOMEDA Holdings' market value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on KOMEDA Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,400 and the most bearish at JP¥3,050 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting KOMEDA Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that KOMEDA Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,230, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for KOMEDA Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the KOMEDA Holdings Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.