Metaplanet (TSE:3350) Valuation in Focus After Major Bitcoin-Funded Pivot and 2025 Forecast Update

Metaplanet (TSE:3350) is making waves this week after the company’s board approved plans to issue perpetual preferred shares in order to purchase more Bitcoin. The company also revised its full-year 2025 earnings forecast.

See our latest analysis for Metaplanet.

Metaplanet’s recent board decisions build on a string of bold pivots, ranging from rapid Bitcoin accumulation to launching financial services linked to digital assets. While the near-term share price has not shown explosive gains, its 1-year total shareholder return of nearly 5% highlights a strengthening base of investor optimism for the company’s changing strategy and bigger ambitions.

If news like Metaplanet’s platform shift sparks your curiosity, it’s a perfect moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With major earnings revisions and ambitious Bitcoin targets now on the table, investors are left to ask whether Metaplanet’s current share price undervalues its future potential, or if the market has already factored in all the upside.

Price-to-Earnings of 41.9x: Is it justified?

Metaplanet’s shares trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41.9x, reflecting strong recent earnings gains but also a premium to both its own sector and peer averages. Despite a last close price of ¥591, the company’s earnings multiple signals a valuation above industry norms and suggests bullish investor expectations.

The P/E ratio represents how much investors are willing to pay for every ¥1 of the company’s earnings. Higher multiples typically signal that the market expects above-average earnings growth or notable business transformation. This fits Metaplanet’s profile after its rapid shift to digital assets and recent profitability.

However, Metaplanet’s P/E of 41.9x is significantly higher than the JP Hospitality industry average of 24.2x and the peer average of 15.9x. While the company’s strong earnings momentum and narrative for future growth make a compelling story, the current multiple already prices in much of this optimism. Compared to the estimated fair P/E of 100.4x, there is a case that the market could drive the multiple even higher in the future if profit growth outpaces expectations.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Metaplanet

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 41.9x (OVERVALUED)

Still, sustained volatility in share price and potential earnings setbacks could quickly challenge the optimism that is driving Metaplanet's current valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Metaplanet narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow and Value Gaps

Looking from another angle, our SWS DCF model places Metaplanet’s fair value at ¥342.02, which is substantially below its current share price of ¥591. This suggests the stock is overvalued through this lens, painting a much less bullish picture than the multiples approach. Could the company’s ambitious growth plans rewrite this story, or is there more risk than meets the eye?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Metaplanet for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Metaplanet Narrative

If you see Metaplanet’s story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own analysis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Metaplanet research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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