Metaplanet (TSE:3350) Valuation Check as Capital Structure Overhaul and EVO FUND Deal Move Forward

Metaplanet (TSE:3350) just put a major capital structure revamp on the table, with its board set to weigh new class B preferred shares, cancel older stock acquisition rights, and strike a fresh deal with EVO FUND.

See our latest analysis for Metaplanet.

Those capital moves come after a volatile stretch for Metaplanet, with the share price at ¥392 following a sharp 1 day share price return of 9.8 percent, a 30 day share price return of minus 20.16 percent, and a standout 3 year total shareholder return of 653.85 percent, signaling that longer term momentum, while choppy, has still been powerful.

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With revenue and earnings still growing fast, but the share price sharply off recent highs, investors face a key question: Is Metaplanet trading at a rare discount, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Price-to-Earnings of 22.1x: Is it justified?

Metaplanet trades on a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 22.1 times at a last close of ¥392, suggesting the market is not aggressively overpaying versus peers.

The Price-to-Earnings multiple compares the current share price to per share earnings, a key lens for a business like Metaplanet where profits have only recently turned positive but are forecast to grow quickly.

Here, the 22.1 times earnings multiple sits slightly below the broader Japan hospitality industry average of 23.1 times. This hints that investors are not paying a premium despite forecasts for revenue to grow at nearly triple digit rates and earnings to expand significantly faster than the wider market. At the same time, our fair Price-to-Earnings estimate of 44.9 times is far above where the stock currently trades, which implies substantial room for re rating if those growth expectations are delivered.

Relative to its sector, Metaplanet looks modestly cheaper than the typical hospitality peer on earnings, yet materially below the level suggested by our fair ratio model. This frames where the market multiple could gravitate if consensus growth trends play out.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Metaplanet

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 22.1x (UNDERVALUED)

However, investors should watch for execution setbacks across its Bitcoin Treasury and Web3 initiatives, or a prolonged share price slump that undermines management’s capital raising flexibility.

Find out about the key risks to this Metaplanet narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Flags Overvaluation

While earnings multiples hint at upside, our DCF model paints a starker picture, putting fair value near ¥35.69, far below the ¥392 share price. That implies Metaplanet screens as heavily overvalued on cash flows and raises the question of which signal investors might prioritize.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Metaplanet for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 920 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Metaplanet Narrative

If you are not convinced by this perspective, or would rather dig into the numbers yourself and shape your own view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Metaplanet research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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