Investing in McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) (TSE:2702) three years ago would have delivered you a 27% gain

Low-cost index funds make it easy to achieve average market returns. But across the board there are plenty of stocks that underperform the market. That's what has happened with the McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. (TSE:2702) share price. It's up 24% over three years, but that is below the market return. Unfortunately, the share price has fallen 9.9% over twelve months.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) was able to grow its EPS at 12% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 7% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We know that McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) the TSR over the last 3 years was 27%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) shareholders are down 9.2% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 18%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan) scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.