Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:3549) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a sad week for Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:3549), who've watched their investment drop 12% to JP¥3,567 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥140b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.0% to hit JP¥50.25 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Kusuri No Aoki Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of JP¥572.7b in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 10.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥179, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥572.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥183 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Kusuri No Aoki Holdings

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,196, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kusuri No Aoki Holdings at JP¥4,580 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,900. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.2% annually. So although Kusuri No Aoki Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Kusuri No Aoki Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Kusuri No Aoki Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think Kusuri No Aoki Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.