Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 12%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Kusuri No Aoki Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:3549) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.9% to JP¥3,193 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥129b, although statutory earnings per share came in 12% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥51.26 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Kusuri No Aoki Holdings' five analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥559.8b in 2026. This would be a decent 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 9.7% to JP¥192. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥555.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥202 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Kusuri No Aoki Holdings

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥3,880, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Kusuri No Aoki Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,300 and the most bearish at JP¥3,200 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Kusuri No Aoki Holdings'historical trends, as the 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.5% annually. So although Kusuri No Aoki Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Kusuri No Aoki Holdings. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,880, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Kusuri No Aoki Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Kusuri No Aoki Holdings' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.