Yamato International (TSE:8127) shareholders notch a 27% CAGR over 3 years, yet earnings have been shrinking

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. For example, the Yamato International Inc. (TSE:8127) share price is up 80% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 53% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 51%, including dividends.

Since the stock has added JP¥1.4b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over the last three years, Yamato International failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 24% (annualized).

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Do you think that shareholders are buying for the 2.8% per annum revenue growth trend? We don't. So truth be told we can't see an easy explanation for the share price action, but perhaps you can...

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

If you are thinking of buying or selling Yamato International stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Yamato International, it has a TSR of 105% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Yamato International has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 51% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 9% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Yamato International is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

Of course Yamato International may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.