Nikon Corporation Just Missed EPS By 51%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Nikon Corporation (TSE:7731) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.2% to JP¥1,511 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥7.95, some 51% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥164b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Nikon

Following last week's earnings report, Nikon's nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥735.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 7.0% to JP¥87.87 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥736.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥86.96 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥1,731, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Nikon analyst has a price target of JP¥2,100 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,400. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Nikon's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 3.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Nikon's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Nikon analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Nikon that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.