Nikon Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a good week for Nikon Corporation (TSE:7731) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 2.4% to JP¥1,439. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥17.86, some 62% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥715b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Taking into account the latest results, Nikon's nine analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥717.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 355% to JP¥84.72. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥733.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥89.28 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

View our latest analysis for Nikon

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of JP¥1,533, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Nikon's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Nikon, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,100 and the most bearish at JP¥1,200 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nikon's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 0.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.8% over the past five years. Compare this to the 77 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Nikon is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nikon. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Nikon going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Nikon (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.