Nikon Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Nikon Corporation (TSE:7731) just released its latest half-year report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥333b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 46%, coming in at just JP¥8.55 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Nikon

Taking into account the latest results, Nikon's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥727.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 14% to JP¥64.14 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥724.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥70.97 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,676, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nikon at JP¥2,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,200. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nikon's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Nikon's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 5.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.5% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nikon is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nikon. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,676, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nikon. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Nikon analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Nikon you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.