Earnings Beat: Nikon Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Nikon Corporation (TSE:7731) just released its annual report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.5% to hit JP¥717b. Nikon reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) JP¥94.03, which was a notable 14% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nikon after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Nikon

Following last week's earnings report, Nikon's eight analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥722.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 3.3% to JP¥90.87 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥717.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥93.18 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥1,728, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nikon at JP¥2,100 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,400. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Nikon shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nikon's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Nikon's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 1.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nikon is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nikon. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Nikon analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Nikon that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.