Shimano Inc. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Shimano Inc. (TSE:7309) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.4% to JP¥22,765 in the past week. Revenues came in at JP¥118b, in line with estimates, while Shimano reported a statutory loss of JP¥25.78 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Shimano

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Shimano from eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥522.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 96% to JP¥928. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥521.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥929 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥25,632, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Shimano analyst has a price target of JP¥32,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥19,500. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shimano's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Shimano's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.0% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Shimano to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥25,632, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shimano going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Shimano that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.