Earnings Beat: Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a good week for Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. (TSE:6460) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 5.1% to JP¥3,054. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥429b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Sega Sammy Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥210 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Sega Sammy Holdings' eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥468.9b in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 9.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥210, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥463.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥213 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Sega Sammy Holdings

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,734. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Sega Sammy Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,200 and the most bearish at JP¥2,800 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 9.3% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.8% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that Sega Sammy Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Sega Sammy Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Sega Sammy Holdings' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.