Rinnai Corporation Just Recorded A 52% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Rinnai Corporation (TSE:5947) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.1% to JP¥3,312 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥120b were what the analysts expected, Rinnai surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥75.23 per share, an impressive 52% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Rinnai after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Rinnai

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Rinnai's eight analysts is for revenues of JP¥473.5b in 2026. This would reflect a modest 4.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥224, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥470.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥225 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥4,121, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Rinnai at JP¥4,750 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,600. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Rinnai is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rinnai's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Rinnai's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.7% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 0.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Rinnai's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Rinnai going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Rinnai Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.