Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About SECOM CO., LTD. (TSE:9735)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at SECOM's (TSE:9735) recent performance, when its stock has declined 2.7% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Specifically, we decided to study SECOM's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for SECOM

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for SECOM is:

8.6% = JP¥121b ÷ JP¥1.4t (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every ¥1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated ¥0.09 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

SECOM's Earnings Growth And 8.6% ROE

At first glance, SECOM seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 8.6%. Despite the modest returns, SECOM's five year net income growth was quite low, averaging at only 4.5%. We reckon that a low growth, when returns are moderate could be the result of certain circumstances like low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

As a next step, we compared SECOM's net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 11% in the same period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 9735? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is SECOM Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

While SECOM has a decent three-year median payout ratio of 41% (or a retention ratio of 59%), it has seen very little growth in earnings. Therefore, there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Moreover, SECOM has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth.

Summary

In total, it does look like SECOM has some positive aspects to its business. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.