NOMURA Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Last week saw the newest yearly earnings release from NOMURA Co., Ltd. (TSE:9716), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were JP¥150b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥60.60 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 16%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NOMURA after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for NOMURA from two analysts is for revenues of JP¥156.0b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 3.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 8.0% to JP¥65.40. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥149.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥48.41 in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about NOMURA's future following the latest results, with a sizeable expansion in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for NOMURA

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of JP¥1,300, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that NOMURA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.8% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.2% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, NOMURA is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around NOMURA's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NOMURA. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for NOMURA going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for NOMURA (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.