NOMURA Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

NOMURA Co., Ltd. (TSE:9716) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥134b were in line with what the analysts predicted, NOMURA surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥34.67 per share, a notable 13% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NOMURA after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for NOMURA

Following the latest results, NOMURA's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥141.0b in 2025. This would be a credible 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.6% to JP¥35.90. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥146.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥42.91 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥1,125 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic NOMURA analyst has a price target of JP¥1,200 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,050. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that NOMURA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 5.1% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 3.2% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.5% per year. Although NOMURA's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,125, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NOMURA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with NOMURA , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.