There May Be Reason For Hope In CAREER's (TSE:6198) Disappointing Earnings

Soft earnings didn't appear to concern CAREER CO., LTD.'s (TSE:6198) shareholders over the last week. We did some digging, and we believe the earnings are stronger than they seem.

See our latest analysis for CAREER

Examining Cashflow Against CAREER's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to March 2024, CAREER recorded an accrual ratio of -0.46. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of JP¥425m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of JP¥197.0m. CAREER's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, which is disappointing, like non-biodegradable balloons.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of CAREER.

Our Take On CAREER's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, CAREER's accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that CAREER's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! Unfortunately, though, its earnings per share actually fell back over the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. At Simply Wall St, we found 2 warning signs for CAREER and we think they deserve your attention.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of CAREER's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.