TechnoPro Holdings (TSE:6028): Assessing Valuation Following New Share Buyback Program Approval

TechnoPro Holdings (TSE:6028) has announced a new share repurchase program, giving management the green light to buy back up to 309,817 shares by December 2025. Investors often keep an eye on moves like these, since share buybacks can suggest confidence in the company’s prospects and may offer some extra support to the stock price.

See our latest analysis for TechnoPro Holdings.

TechnoPro Holdings’ latest buyback plan arrives as the company’s share price remains near record highs, closing at ¥4,845 after remarkable momentum so far this year. The share price has delivered a 66.5% return year to date, with the one-year total shareholder return reaching an impressive 74.6%. This kind of sustained outperformance suggests that investors are factoring in both recent earnings growth and management’s confident moves, such as the newly announced buyback, as signs of longer-term potential.

If management’s shareholder moves have you looking for what else could be next, now's a great time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

But with the share price riding high, the bigger question is whether TechnoPro Holdings is still undervalued or if the recent rally means future growth is already baked in. Could this be a buying opportunity, or has the market priced it all in?

Most Popular Narrative: 25% Overvalued

TechnoPro Holdings is currently priced much higher than the consensus fair value, with the last close at ¥4,845 compared to the narrative's estimated fair value. That gap is driving debate about whether growth expectations fully justify the premium built into the stock price.

The focus on expanding solution business offerings, which have higher value and margin, is likely to contribute to overall revenue growth and enhance net margins over time. The recruitment of inexperienced engineers with a subsequent focus on their training provides potential for long-term growth through increased operational capacity and can stabilize SG&A ratios.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what bold projections are powering this lofty price? This narrative hinges on ambitious growth plans, higher margins, and a big bet on future engineering talent. Can these moves really move the needle on profits? Find out what else the street thinks is fueling this premium.

Result: Fair Value of ¥3,868 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing high turnover rates and rising recruitment costs could prove to be significant obstacles for TechnoPro Holdings' ambitious growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this TechnoPro Holdings narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Signals Undervaluation

While market multiples point to TechnoPro Holdings as expensive relative to its peers, our DCF model tells a different story. According to this cash flow-based approach, the shares trade 32.3% below their estimated fair value and this may hint at potential upside if cash flow forecasts play out. Which measure will prove more reliable?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out TechnoPro Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own TechnoPro Holdings Narrative

If you’re curious to dig deeper or think you see a different story in the numbers, you can quickly craft your own take in just minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding TechnoPro Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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