Revenue Miss: Mitsubishi Corporation Fell 12% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Mitsubishi Corporation (TSE:8058) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.8% to JP¥2,839 in the past week. It looks to have been a bit of a mixed result. While revenues of JP¥4.7t fell 12% short of what the analysts had predicted, statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥86.93 exceeded expectations by 4.4%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Mitsubishi

Following last week's earnings report, Mitsubishi's ten analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥19t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.7% to JP¥256. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥19t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥252 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,637, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Mitsubishi analyst has a price target of JP¥4,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,180. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.8% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 0.2% per year. It's pretty clear that Mitsubishi's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mitsubishi's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Mitsubishi analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Mitsubishi (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com